but I'd define a casual fan as someone who doesn't look for setlists on the web
yes, but i would not underestimate the "second hand" effect. the more people who are not really fans and just went there (like nogames girlfriend :-)) and leave the concert with a big smile the more people will get "infected". also people coming from the media business will be more interested if the target group gets larger so there will be more hype and promotion when the first concerts turned out to be amazing. i bet the Heathen tour last year had more effect on the concerts than any setlist could have had but i would not underestimate the effect of radiostations playing more bowie hits after having them in the current bowie set. apart from this i guess the tour is also promotion for the BOB discs. and also vice-versa the tour is promoted by the BOB releases.
another thing: i have no ideas about any numbers but this time it did not seem as if people tried to sell tickets before the concert. perhaps last time i just went there earlier so i missed the re-sellers this time. but i had the feeling that it was much better sold than the heathen tour. on the other hand there were still tickets left in online sale a few days before the concert. but that of course was just berlin which is much closer to copenhagen than north america.